About the author:
Daniel is CTO at rhome GmbH, and Co-Founder at Aqarios GmbH. He holds a M.Sc. in Computer Science from LMU Munich, and has published papers in reinforcement learning and quantum computing. He writes about technical topics in quantum computing and startups.
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# There is no recession coming

I just want to be contrarian. Fearmongering all across media1, yield curve and foreign investment, trade war, germany close to a recession2, corporate debt37. Both sides have valid points. But mostly I see caution and restraint all around. Where is the irrational exuberance4?

The good thing is, I am not that heavily invested right now. So it is really exciting to be part of history and follow the markets, but with not that much risk.

I am extremely interested in what the black swan event will be this time.

Since yields are down everywhere5, which is unprecedented, pension funds need to get their yield from somewhere. Maybe this is where irrational exuberance may come from? But this would probably be years away..

  1. https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/cxha4y/recession_posts_on_rinvesting_tracked_against_sp/ ↩

  2. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-23/germany-may-see-no-growth-this-year-as-manufacturing-slumps ↩

  3. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18964470 ↩

  4. https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/cqbsl1/is_it_just_me_or_does_this_looming_recession_seem/ ↩

  5. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/07/bizarro-bonds-negative-yielding-debt-in-the-world-balloons-to-15-trillion.html ↩

  6. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NCBDBIQ027S ↩

  7. I don't understand this one. Corporate debt has been rising since like forever6, what gives? ↩

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